Playoff Week 1 Projections

I am going to paste a refresher for the home field advantage scoring in the playoffs. Basically the higher seed is awarded 2 points to start the matchup...

Home Field Advantage Bonus in the Playoffs

-Home team in each Playoff Matchup starts with +2 points, considered home field advantage. Ever try playing in Foxborough in December?

-This will encourage regular season match ups and ensure finishing as a top seed during the year is rewarded.. along with a nice cash payout for winning the regular season. Each playoff match up home team is rewarded +2 points at start of match up, giving the disadvantage to the lesser seed - really like this rule and should be fun if the 2 points actually decides a victory!

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Week 1 of the playoffs is upon us. In what seems like a short week coming off a holiday after thanksgiving, the games are quickly approaching starting with a Thursday night matchup in the Bears vs the Cowboys. Vegas has the over/under at 42.5, in which should be a low scoring affair. I believe the Cowboys have a ton more pressure to win this game, so Mitch and the boys should play relatively composed and not a lot of pressure to do too much. This is a winable game, is it winable for fantasy? We got Dak, Montgommery, Arob, Bears D, tarik, Zeke and few other potential starts in fantasy... how will they fair on Thursday Night?

White Claw Variety Packs(8) vs All Mahomies(1)

Pretty cool feature ESPN has showing previous matchups against your opponent you are facing in the playoffs. As you can see, Peter and Paul had a very close game in week 12, that led to Peter pulling off the late comeback on MNF to secure a victory:

Current projections for this matchup have Peter as a 12 point favorite against White Claw Variety Packs. 

 It will be interesting to see who Peter starts at QB, as Lamar has to play in Buffalo, and Mahomes has to play in Gillette. Fun fact, Tom Brady and Julian Edelman have never lost a home game in the regular season at Gillette against an AFC opponent. Think about that for a second. Will we see an early round exit from Peter? See where I am going with this? Paul has some decent matchups with Lev Bell playing against Miami, and Aaron Jones playing against the R Words. Will Justin Tucker hit a 50 yard field goal to upset the King? 

Tom Brady - Julian Edelman
When both play
vs AFC, at home
regular season

(41-0, 1.000)

ridiculous

details pic.twitter.com/WvrgIcov18

— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) October 23, 2019

Projection

White Claw Variety Packs 135.4 defeats All Mahomies 129.6 

White Claw takes the upset in the first round, ending a phenomenal regular season for All Mahomies on the backs of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry against the Bengals, and TB12 and Edelman at home in Gillette. 

The Flemchise(5) vs I Lockett Alot(4)

A high scoring affair in week 12 led to Flem pulling a way a big victory in this duo's only heads up matchip in the regular season. What will it take for Nordo to have a revenge game and move on to the next round?



For starters, he is going to have to decide who he wants to start at QB. Aaron Rodgers against the R words or Dak against the Bears? I think Rodgers is a no brainer answer here, but Dak has been putting up monster numbers and finished as the #2 QB in the regular season behind Lamar. Can you really sit the number 2 fantasy point getter in week 1 of the playoffs and cheer for Aaron Rodgers ? 











Current projections has Flem as a 11.5 point favorite that includes already being down 2 points as the away team. We are fortunate in this matchup regarding Thursday Night Football, as we have at least 3 players playing in Zeke, Arob, Montgomery, and a possible 4th in Dak. One of these managers is going to wake up Friday with a headache wondering how they gain points on Sunday. Gonna be a longgggg weekend fellas.













It is also going to be very interesting that Flem has Russ Wilson and Nordo has Tyler Lockett. That may be a determining factor? Hopefully the TD's go to Lockett to make this matchup really interesting.. I think the deciding factor, however, are going to be Golladay my favorite pick, Chubb and Kittle overcome a tough matchup in Michael Thomas Keenan Allen and Cook.





Projection


The Flemchise 135.2 defeats I Lockett Alot 131.4 

To Khalil A Mackingbird(6) vs Jahnsy Stackedhouse(3)

A low scoring affair in their sole regular season matchup in week 9. Teams that were trying to find their place in the standings, Jahns edged out a close one. The spread is basically a pick em right now in Vegas, giving the slight edge to Jahns with the home field advantage. I am curios to see how the line is going to move after the Wednesday night waiver wire and if Jahns' wideouts can get healthy before their games. Thielen and Julio are both questionable heading into this week, with AJ Green also out with he have to rely on the likes of Jamison Crowder and Tyrell Williams again? I sure hope not dude.










Although Crowder has a matchup against the Dolphins.... hmmmmm





Both managers will have decisions to make on the defensive side of the ball. Jahns has 49ers D against New Orleans, and Kratz has Bears D against Cowboys on TNF.... will they seek the waiver wire??


In looking at determining who has the upper edge in RB's this week, I am having difficult in deciding. 











All RB's have tough matchups, Fournette vs Chargers, Ingram vs Buffalo, Kamara vs San Fran, Gurley vs Seahawks. Going to give the edge to Jahns here based off the bigger names, but not by much. I expect this to be another low scoring affair in what may come down to who has the better flex play.. I know Kratz does not like me saying that but it is the truth, this matchup can go either way. 











With the question marks surrounding Jahnsy Stackedhouse' health, going to give the W to Khalil



To Khalil A Mackingbird 121.1 defeats Jahnsy Stackedhouse 116.5

Injured And Afraid(7) vs What the Ekeler?(2)

David has certainly come a long way since their Week 4 matchup in which Nick doubled his score. The hottest team in the league now gets to faceoff against a 2 seed who is a big underdog in Vegas. Current line has David at 11 point favorites already down 2 points to home field advantage. With how well Josh Allen, Saquon, Derrick Henry, Stefon Digs, Darren Waller and Tyreek Hill having been playing for him, it would not surprise me if David takes the 'upset' in this one. Not much of an upset when your team is Healthy And Confident, but I Digress (Mr. Jennings voice). In looking at the matchups, Allen has a tough one against the Ravens, and Tyreek Hill against New England. Other than that, his team looks to put up massive numbers this week playing against Philly, Oakland, Detroit and Atlanta.

















Nick on the other hand had the highest score in week 13 and is certainly trying to shut the haters up. Kirkc Cousins and Dalvin Cook are going to put up big numbers against Detroit this week after a tough loss against Seattle on national television. Ekeler is the 5th ranked RB and Robert Woods is coming off his best game of the season. I have a feeling this is going to be the highest scoring matchup in round one and am certainly excited to see the outcome which me may not know until Monday Night Football when Saquon takes on Philly against the Eagles with Eli Manning behind center. Will Nick's gamble of drafting Kareem Hunt pay dividends in Week 14? This is why you draft him, right? I sure hope sittin Deshaun Watson the fourth ranked QB in regular season does not come back to hunt you... see what I did there?
















Projection

Injured And Afraid 169.9 defeats What the Ekeler? 158.2

Consolation Bracket

Irwin is going to defeat me for the third time this season because I suck. 

Regular Season Finale

2019 FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEK 13 

Week 13 Categories

A) Team that beats opponent by largest margin of victory 

Winner: Injured and Afraid - David - beat Kratz by 44.1 points

.@CoachVrabel50 didn't have to tell @KingHenry_2 twice 😤@insidetheNFL | @Titans pic.twitter.com/mjAHiUaO8i

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) November 26, 2019

It seems as though every year in our draft people sleep on Derick Henry, and then David just swoops in and claims him off the board and everyone goes "meh"

Well the joke is on us people. Check out these stats from Henry below. He finishes the regular season as the third ranked running back in fantasy and was drafted 43rd overall (5th round). Nice Pick David.

B) Team with the highest scorer on their bench

Winner:  I Lockett Alot - Devante Parker - 36.4 points




OF COURSE Nordo won this category, easiest bet I've ever made. Kid just loves to soak up points on his bench.. he will certainly need to make the right decisions in week 1.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/devante-parker-proof-bears-lost-patience-kevin-white-too-soon.... NO??

Devante's pretty good..


Paul just missed this category with James White scoring 35.8 points on his bench. 

White picked up 79 yards on 14 carries, and he also gained 98 yards with two touchdowns on eight receptions. The 177 yards from scrimmage made for a single-game career high for White, the 79 rushing yards also made for a single-game career high, and White’s 32-yard run in the third quarter was a career long.

White also recorded his 300th reception during the game. He reached that mark in his 74th career game, making him the sixth-fastest running back in history to record his 300th reception.

Probably one of the most underrated backs in the league, mainly because Patriots backfield has always been clogged up like the Dan Ryan. White has certainly been a cornerstone Brady can rely on over the years. Hopefully Tarik can pan out to be like White one day. 

C) High Scorer

Winner: What The Ekeler? - 170.4 points 

Led by monster games from Robert Woods (felt like we've been waiting for a big game from him) and the entire team other than a mediocre performance from Dalvin Cook on Monday Night. If I would have told you Dalvin Cook was the lowest scoring performer (other than kicker) the week Nick won highest score would you believe me? Getting production from other players on this team is crucial heading into the playoffs, a big game from Cook in round 1 would certainly prove dividends.

Robert Woods faced off-coverage (5+ yds of cushion) on 30 of 41 routes (73%), finishing with 10 receptions for 139 yards against off-coverage.@robertwoods gained 137 of 172 yards after the catch (80%), the most YAC in a game by any player this season.#LARvsAZ | #LARams pic.twitter.com/Dzb0f91I2s

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 2, 2019

A lot just happened.

But let's take it back to earlier in the third quarter, please enjoy. 🍿@JaredGoff16 x @RobertWoods x #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/qIaJXGpdma

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 1, 2019

Week 13 Regular Season Finale 

Welp - I said it in my preview last week that Joe could play spoiler this week. With Paul losing to Nick this week all I had to do was win and get in. Some injuries and really bad draft choices are what ultimately did me in. A 4 game losing streak brings an end to a season I will hopefully put past me...but this one is going to take some time. From drafting Andrew Luck who retired, to Cam Newton is a fucking clown, I just knew I was in store for a whacky season. This will be the last time I draft David Johnson and certainly will not be investing anymore time in JuJu. A sad day, especially when you take a look at this graphic:

As you can see, Dude Where's My Carson? was projected the first overall roster after our draft. A couple variables happened which I mentioned above that did not turn out in my favor. Also having the most points scored against you on a weekly basis was tough. 

Next closest in the points against category was Flem, but he found ways to outlast his opponents and put up big numbers with one of the more ballsy drafts we've ever seen. Props.

Point Differentials:

1. Peter +366.3

2. Nick +93.3

3. Jahns +49

4. Nordo -8.4

5. Flem +4.4

6. Kratz +28.8

7. David -33.4

8.  Paul -118.1

9. Quinn -235.5

10. Irwin -146.6

Points For:

1. Peter   2137.3

2. Flem   1839.8

3. Paul    1697.7

4. Nick    1689.4

5. Kratz   1677.7

6. Quinn  1676.5

7. David   1662.5

8. Jahns  1658.7

9. Nordo  1582.8

10. Irwin  1474.4 

A couple things to note on these numbers. Truly a shame that Nordo and Jahns come in at the 3rd and 4th place finish providing them with the playoff home field advantage of +2 points (will get more into later) when they were near dead last in the points for category. After the top to scorers in Peter and Flem, it is quite amazing how close the pack was between the 3-8th place teams. One of the more competitive seasons I've played in fantasy and truly came down to the last week. 

Looking back at the original season projections by ESPN, also quite amazing to see they pretty much guessed everyone right with the exception of Joe, Peter and myself. We do not have to get to in depth at the season Peter had, but I don't know if we will see as dominating a performance in the regular season like we had for a long time. I wonder who will be his keeper next year? 

Going back to the last week's matchups it came down to David needing to win and get in, and then Paul and myself needing a W or to outscore one another.

I guess it's only fitting that it came down to Paul and my self (on a 6 and 4 game losing streak, respectively) to who would claim the 8 seed to face off against Peter in week 1 matchup. Having lost to Joe earlier in the year I knew it was going to be a tough opponent, but there's really only one person to blame for the loss and that's myself. 

I decided to pick up Nick Foles, as he was playing against the Atlanta Falcons who I have shit on their defense in the past. It felt like a no-brainer. Didn't think twice about it. 

Until I opened up The Score app and saw that Foles had two lost fumbles and 2 interceptions in the first half with a total of -.3 points. 

I chuckled, laughed, then laughed again. This time it was uncontrollable, similar to that of Patrick Bateman. 

In short, of the 17 QB's that were available on the waiver wire this past week, 14 of them scored 14.3 points or more that would have got me the W against Joe and given me the 8 seed in the playoffs. 

Here is a list of QB's who would have gotten me the victory:

Taysom Hill plays running back, and Gardner Minshew came in during the second half of the Jags game! Think about that for a second, take a look at that list of QB's - then imagine yourself picking up Nick Foles in a week 13 do-or-die matchup.

Again, I blame myself..

Dude Where's My Carson? vs Roll The Hard Six  

102.2 to 116.8

Props to Joe holding on to Davante Adams, as I am sure that was the most requested trade throughout the season next to David's entire team. Really happy you guys held strong and believed in your team. Adams solidified the win this week with a big 23.4 showing against the lowly Giants. Funny enough I also lost to Joe in week 4 when Davante Adams was also his top scorer with 26.4 points (then got hurt basically after that). I guess moral of the story is F D. Adams??

White Claw Variety Packs vs What the Ekeler? 

129.7 to 170.4 

Big week (garbage time) from Brady and Edelman putting up a combined 56 points to solidify the 8 seed for Paul. Good luck next week! 

Nick needed this big score week after an almost fraudulent season at the two seed. This was a statement W heading into the playoffs and should help that most of the members on his team are fighting for playoff spots meaning they will not be taken out upon clinching playoff spots like we have seen in years past (prime example Gurley losing game time when Rams clinched).

Jahnsy Stackedhouse vs I Lockett Alot  

74.1 to 106.1 

Only fitting that these two scrubs matched up against each other in a week 13 bout who would've determined who was the more unworthy 3 seed. In this case it is Jahns as he finished with more total points in the season, to go along with multiple trades which turned out to be of great value for all parties. In looking at who Jahns started in his wideouts this week (Tyrell Williams and Jamison Crowder) makes me sick to my stomach that he's got the 3 seed. But, with Julion, AJ Green and Adam Thielen all hurt, he has relied on his run game in Kamara and Gurley to get by. If this team gets healthy.. watch out.

Nordo on the other hand basically wins his matchups with strong QB play and some random player going off. In this case Rogers and Montgomery totaled half his weeks points, so expect big QB play in week 1 of the playoffs from this manager. 

Injured And Afraid vs To Khalil A Mackingbird

129.4 to 85.3 

A winner of 4 straight, the hottest team in the league Injured And Afraid rides the wave into a week 13 pounding led by strong play from his entire team. With the exception of the Eagles Defense. Anybody else have the Eagles in Moneyline Parlay against the Dolphins? That's almost as bad as me picking up Nick Foles this week. 

Has anybody been more of a frustrating start in the flex spot this year than Joe Mixon? It seems like if you start him one week he can't gain a yard, the week you sit him he has a sound game. Frustrating. But not as frustrating as having to decide between Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan each week. Who will it be in week 1 of the playoffs? 

All Mahomies vs The Flemchise 

95.6 to 131.5 

Let me first start off by saying congratulations to Peter for one of the more dominating regular season performances we've ever seen. It's unreal that his first loss came in the last week in which he failed to break the 100 point mark for the first time (don't fact check me, but I am pretty sure). Now is not the right time to have your first loss, but at least you got it out of the way before the playoffs.. should be an interesting match up week 1 which will be previewed next... 

Congrats on winning the $200 for regular season winner, as well as the countless weekly categories won. I think I got an email from Venmo the other day accusing you of being my bookie and that they would halt anymore payments made to your @venmo account. That's how absurd it got each week.

as a refresher on the payouts...

Standard Scoring

10 team entry standard payout
regular season winner	$200
1st place	$500
2nd place	$250
3rd place	$50

Weekly Categories and Top Scorer

-2 Weekly Random Categories; $100 entry: See weekly categories @ end of blog.
-$75 paid out weekly, $25 per category (2 per week) along with $25 for highest score of the week.
-^total paid out for 13 week regular season =$975.00
-With ten full entries that would leave us with an additional $25.00 that will be handed out to a random manager at some point in the season rewarded for 'good play' (i.e., a solid waiver wire pick up, a trade, a specific play/benching in a given week that wins you a weekly match up. Will be chosen at random by commissioner and featured on blog stating the reason they won the bonus $25.00

You guys have heard me say it before, but Kenny Golladay was probably my favorite draft pick this year next to Chris Godwin.




Another great 5th round pick like David's Derick Henry selection, Golladay was selected 45th overall and as Flem's wideout 1. Golladay finished as the 4th ranked receiver in fantasy this year, talk about value!



Chris Gowdin was taken with the very next pick in the 5th round at 46th overall.. seeing a trend here people? Godwin finished the season as the 2nd ranked wide receiver finishing only 16 points behind the league leading Michael Thomas... Great picks guys - those are draft picks kids can only dream of.

***Bonus $25 awarded by commish***

As mentioned above and at the beginning of the season, I have waited all season long to award an extra $25 to one lucky manager who I deemed fit for the monetary award for whatever reason. Whether it be a waiver wire add, a funny team name, a solid flex-start spot, or even sitting/starting a specific player to win a weekly category. There were many times throughout the season I wanted to pull the trigger, but nothing really stood out to me. That is.... until I started to see what one team was doing rising in the ranks from the depths of the 10th ranked team as far back as week 6 when he started the season 0-6. 

In week 7 this team had its first victory, in which I said they would go on to win out and ultimately reach the playoffs. Well, I was close - David went on to 6 of the next 7 match ups and pulverized everyone in his path (except Peter). 

If you guys can recall, I had mentioned to David a couple of weeks ago that he should change his team name from Injured and Afraid to Healthy and Confident

I truly thought it was one of my better puns, all things considering his team was genuinely a different team and was in fact, healthy and confident. It was rather disappointing he did not seem to agree with me in changing his name, I am not sure if it made too much sense or what? I slept on it, and took a step back to think-was this really the person I wanted to hand out the bonus to? David went on to win his next few matchups and solidified the 7th seed (avoiding to have to play Peter in the first round).

I just had this bad taste in my mouth... So I decided to text David the morning of writing this blog 12/3/19. I suggested once again (in a text between just us two) that he change his team name to Healthy and Confident.

 He declined, in which my decision was made. David was not going to earn the $25 bonus.

Instead, I decided it be given to the manager who showed the most courage (liquid or not) on Draft Night in selecting not 1, but 2 players who were sitting out contracts at the time of drafting. 

Congrats to Flem - you had the courage what I could not do. And that was selecting Zeke when I was trying to Zag. David Johnson, Imagine?

Props to you for showing up to the draft in the bag after a birthday happy hour. Cheers!