"All I remember about my wedding day in 1967 is that the Cubs lost a doubleheader." — George F. Will

Friday, December 20, 2019

Championship Preview

Well, it has been a fun year for fantasy. With the Bears just being eliminated from the playoffs it is timely that we get one last weekend of meaningful games in Mitch vs Mahomes and Kratz vs Flem





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Taken from wikipedia:


Noun[edit]

all the marbles pl (plural only)
  1. (idiomatic) everything; all that is to be had.
    After a day's worth of events, it came down to one last match; this one was for all the marbles.


Taken from Urban Dictionary:


a term used to express victory or defeat of another. also used as a term of endearment such as "booyeah"
(after a kill/defeat of in a game) he/she just lost all the marbles.

(after beating a song on guitar hereo) i've got all the marbles.

(after completing something difficult) i just got all the marbles



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During Super Bowl media week I had a chance to catch up with these two managers and grab quote from each of them on the upcoming game.



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From The Flemchise:

"It seems fitting that after being drunk for thd raft I'll be drunk for my quote. 

Office party started at 1 pm today (I had asked Flemming for a quote at roughly 7 p.m.). 

But, I'm blessed to be here. Me and Kratz have teams that were obviously the strongest although we got robbed in the regular season. Just gonna have to play my studs and hope for the best. 



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From To Khalil A Mackingbird:

"Really respect The Flemchise and the squad he has built over there. Very strong from head to toe, tough competition. 

Probably the biggest 'big dick' move I've ever seen taking Zeke and Melvin in the draft. It's difficult to win three road games in a row in playoff time, and even harder to beat a team three times in a season. 

But, that's the task in front of my squad. 

Trust my guys and hopefully we have a great matchup. May the best team win, and I wish Flem luck. Glad it'll be one of us. 

P.S. Fuck What The Ekeler?, Full All Mahomies." 



Well thanks for that guys... Let's dive into the matchup.




To Khalil A Mackingbird(6) vs The Flemchise(5)



I'd first like to start out by saying congratulations to the two finalists who have earned their way here. A truly hard fought season had by all comes down to just one. For all the marbles.. 


These two teams met twice in the regular season. Both extremely high scoring matchups, Kratz edging out Flem both times. Will he be able to hold off for a third straight W against this opponent? They say it is difficult to beat an opponent three times, and with Flem having the home field advantage lets see if the two points proves to be the kicker in this one.


Vegas current odds has the away team To Khalil A Mackingbird favored by just over a field goal at 3.3 points. It will be interesting to see how the betting public sways this line one way or another. I fully expect the public to bring in 70% of bets on The Flemchise at +3.3 points. We should see the line drop down closer to 1.5-2 point dogs for the home team. A nice line you want to be in as the home crowd tries to bring home a championship against an opponent you haven't beat all season. 


Fun thing about this matchup is we have 3 football games on Saturday. 


Texans vs Buccaneers - noon kickoff


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Bills vs Patriots - 3:05 kickoff 


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Rams vs 49ers - 7:15 kickoff 


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A lot is going to be decided after the noon game is over on Saturday if Kratz elects to start both Deandre Hopkins and Breshad Perriman who blew up last week. Let's see if he can have a repeat performance with no Godwin or Evans for Jameis to throw to? Those targets gotta go somewhere! But will he want both wideout positions done just within the first game of the weekend alone?



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Image result for godwin perriman evans"


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It doesn't look like anyone is starting any players from the Bills Pats game, but Paul if you're reading this, hammer the Bills moneyline and the under.. bankrupt your bookie on Saturday and have a nice little cash flow to mess around with on Sunday. 


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The Saturday night game is going to decide the outcome of this matchup even more with Robbie Gould playing and a possible Tyler Higbee who has recorded three straight games of over 100 yards. But will Gerald Everett be back from injury to possibly steal some snaps/targets against a tough 49ers defense? I expect this to be a good game from NFC competitors who are fighting for playoff spots and home field advantage.


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If Kratz elects to play all these people mentioned he will have 4 starts done before the Sunday games even start. Could be a big difference maker if he is up big or down on who Flem will counter in his flex spot on Sunday. Something tells me he is going to keep one of his RB's there though....


Flem looks to be only starting George Kittle on Saturday, so smooth sailing watching those games realizing you have one of the better tight ends in the league playing that evening.




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Image result for george kittle stiff arm gif"



Image result for george kittle stiff arm gif"



Some (Un)Favorable Matchups 

However, To Khalil A Mackingbird has some NICE matchups on Sunday in Joe Mixon vs Miami, Fournette vs Atlanta, and Ingram against Cleveland. Expect huge numbers from his RB's this weekend in which I would have never thought he may have the upper hand against Flem's RB's in Chubb, Gordon, and Zeke.



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Chubb takes on Baltimore who is a wagon right now destroying everybody.. will they sit their starters if they get up big ? Maybe some garbage time for Chubb?


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Gordon takes on Oakland who was just embarrassed in their last game at Oakland stadium. I expect Gruden and the boys to put up a fight and limit Gordon a bit here. It's a shame What the Ekeler? lost because Ekeler should have a big game with the dump-offs.



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Zeke takes on Philly who has been really shaky as of late, but I know they do have a decent front 7 led by Cox.


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Boy doesn't he remind you a bit of Hicks? It was nice seeing Hicks out there last game fighting the Packers with a bad elbow. Guy's a monster.



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In a wild turn of events we had some controversy due to some questionable pickups on the waiver. After some back and forth it was decided all decisions would be reversed since there was no technical written rule. Something will be established next year prior to the season. It makes sense and understood all parties involved side. Nothing like superbowl week! League's integrity was at stake and it is best the commish reversed his ruling. No bad taste in mouth no hard feelings, gotta enjoy everyone's will for the ship.





What this Matchup is really going to come down to is how well does Mixon perform who has been very reliable of late. Here's a quot from Matthew Berry's blog:

"Mixon leads the NFL in both touches (54) and scrimmage yards (342) over the past two weeks, so those who hung tough with him during his early-season struggles have been rewarded. Make of this what you will, but four of Mixon's top five games this season have come on the road, with a strong chance to make it five of six with this visit to Miami. The Dolphins cough up the second-most yards per play this season and the fifth-most RB fantasy points."


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He can easily dictate the outcome of the championship game this week. 

I fully expect the same case to be made for Zeke who has put up 18, 23, and 32 point weeks in order. Will he score in the 40's this week to keep that ladder going? 



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Depending on how big of a beating Seattle hands down to Arizona can also dictate the outcome of this matchup with Flem starting both Russ and the Seahawks D it looks like.


With both managers possessing 5-6 players all within the top 15 in scoring ranks in their respective positions this can really go either way. What I really believe this comes down to is the opponents each fantasy player has to play against and simply see the easier opponents going to To Khalil A Mackingbird.





Projection


To Khalil A Mackingbird 143.3 defeats The Flemchise 138.5 



#WaiverGate


Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Semi-finals Preview

Playoffs Week 1




Projection
White Claw Variety Packs 135.4 defeats All Mahomies 129.6

Outcome
White Claw Variety Packs 113.8 defeats All Mahomies 103


New this one was going to be close, just didn't realize it would be as low scoring. Let's pour one out for a regular season team for the ages in All Mahomies. Please take a moment to watch this tribute.








Projection
The Flemchise 135.2 defeats I Lockett Alot 131.4 

Outcome
The Flemchise 151.7 defeats I Lockett Alot 120.5


Outcome would have been a lot closer to projection had Nordo started a defense and played Dak. Maybe next year he will just take one QB so he is not faced with the daunting task each week in who to start. Also, interested to see which players each one of these managers will keep next year. 


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Flem had about as productive of a matchup from each player on his team one could ask for:





Projection
To Khalil A Mackingbird 121.1 defeats Jahnsy Stackedhouse 116.5

Outcome
To Khalil A Mackingbird 138.8 defeats Jahnsy Stackedhouse 119.5

Pretty spot on with Jahns' projected outcome. A year plagued with some questionable trades and constant injuries is what ultimately did this team in. On paper, Jahns produced a team that should have been able to make a nice run in the playoffs. That fell short with a sold showing from Deandre Hokpins and Joe Mixon. 

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With a big game from Ryan Tannehill, Jahns can probably sleep a bit better at night knowing that sitting Drew Brews in a playoff matchup did not come back to haunt him. 

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Projection
Injured And Afraid 169.9 defeats What the Ekeler? 158.2

Outcome
Injured And Afraid 111.5 defeated by What the Ekeler? 177.8


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I projected last week this was going to be a high scoring affair. David's run of winning 6 of the last 7 matchups fell short in one of the stronger week 1 showings we have witnessed in recent memory. With massive games from Austin Ekeler & Robert Woods, and some help from Deshaun's garbage time TD's against the Broncos wound up being the x factors in this blowout. Nick could have reached the 200 point threshold if he had started Emanuel Sanders who put up 38 points.



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Derrick Henry continued to impress with a 26.5 point showing, and can be considered the most underrated running back in our draft this past year. Average performances from Saquon, Tyreek Hill and Josh Allen are what did this team in. Congrats on a hard fought year after start out 0-6. 

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Semi-finals Preview






White Claw Variety Packs(8) vs The Flemchise(1)




Vegas currently gives The Flemchise a 6.7 favorite over White Claw Variety Packs and Flem has a 2 point head start with the home field advantage. After splitting the regular season games, we have a good ole fashion grudge match on our hands. 


Starting with Paul, it looks like he will be starting 3 Patriots against the lowly Bengals in Brady, Edelman, & White. This is a huge stack I will be referring to as The Triple Quarter Pounder. 



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CC: Nordo 


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I expect these 3 to put up big numbers against the Bengals. Expect the Pats to put up big points after suffering a home loss last week against the Chiefs. 

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Other noticeable matchups are the tag team duo of Landry and OBJ playing against the lowly Cardinals this week. 

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Paul is a big time favorite this week in the opponents of his players sucking category. 

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Strong secondary scoring from the Buffalo Bills Defense and perhaps a late 50 yard field goal from Justin Tucker could put this team over the top and secure an upset against Flem this week.

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The Flemchise is coming off a strong all around performance from his team. I expect Russ to be Russ against the Panthers this weekend. Nick Chubb can easily get two TD's against the Cardinals and there is a real possibility George Kittle puts up a triple quarter pounder against the Falcons. 



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Image result for russell wilson"


I do expect another big game from A-Rob against a sucky packers defense and with Mitch playing well right now. He can continue to roll on for the bears and help make their playoff push hopeful. 

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Where I see this team running into some difficulty this week is in Flem's most coveted draft picks in Zeke and Melvin Gordon. Both have tough matchups. 


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Gordon has to play against a hungry Vikings defense trying to maintain a wildcard spot in the playoffs, and Zeke has to face a tough front 7 in the Rams defense who are also trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. These two matchups may certainly be the deciding benefactor in this close semi-final matchup. 

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However, there is one X-factor you guys have heard me mention before as my favorite draft pick this year. None other than Kenny Golladay. 


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Image result for kenny golladay"



Projection

The Flemchise 141.8 defeats White Claw Variety Packs 139.8 courtesy of home field advantage (+2)

To quote week 1 blog: "Home team in each Playoff Matchup starts with +2 points, considered home field advantage. Ever try playing in Foxborough in December?"

Image result for foxborough gillette stadium snow


Image result for foxborough gillette stadium snow



To Khalil A Mackingbird(6) vs What the Ekeler(2)


Vegas is giving a TD to To Khalil A Mackingbird in this one, as 5.2 point favorites against What the Ekeler? Seems a bit disrespectful with the big showing from Nick last week, but I do not make the lines. Big question mark this week will be who do these two teams start in their QB and flex spots? That has been a very difficult decision in the past and I imagine both managers are losing sleep this week in trying to decide what the best options are. Regular season matchup saw Nick pulling out a W, will he be able to go undefeated against Kratz this year and make a run at the Championship?



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We got Kyler Murray or Matt Ryan? We got Deshaun Watson or Kirk Cousins? Tough decisions indeed. 


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We got Joe Mixon or Sony Michel? We got Kareeum Hunt or Miles Sanders?

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Some favorable matchups for Kratz's RB's. Fournette takes on Oakland and Mark Ingram takes on the Jets. Chris Godwin also has a juicy matchup against the Lions with Mike Evans out he should see a few more targets than usual. I see a big game coming for Godwin and Mark Ingram. Robbie Gould also may kick 10 field goals against the Falcons and may certainly be the deciding factor in this one.





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Fournette has TNF this week, so we will see how many points Kratz is up heading into Sunday which may ultimately drive some decision makings in these managers flex spots.


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Some favorable matchups for Nick we get Robert Woods who is smoking hot against the Cowboys who have looked defeated in recent weeks. Emmanuel Sanders with a big game last week against the Falcons and the main man himself in Dalvin Cook against the Chargers.


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I expect this one to be a shootout.

Nick looks to be starting Steelers defense who have been good all season. They play on Sunday night football, which will be excruciating to watch if I am in this matchup.


Talk about Sunday scaries. CC: Nordo


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If Nick also decides to start either Pascal or Jack Doyle this week, the Colts don't play until Monday Night, so we may have to wait awhile to see who wins this one!

Look for the possibility of Nick starting Deshaun Watson to counter Kratz's Deandre Hopkins play. Could certainly cross each other out or comeback to haunt him if Deshaun only has 1 TD and it goes to Hopkins. Tennessee has certainly played well as of late on defense and are pushing for a wildcard spot behind this man:


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Projection

To Khalil A Mackingbird 147.3 defeats What the Ekeler? 139.2 courtesy of Chris "mother-effin" Godwin



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Image result for chris godwin gif"




Consolation Bracket

I lost to Irwin a third time this season.

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