Playoff Week 1 Projections

I am going to paste a refresher for the home field advantage scoring in the playoffs. Basically the higher seed is awarded 2 points to start the matchup...

Home Field Advantage Bonus in the Playoffs

-Home team in each Playoff Matchup starts with +2 points, considered home field advantage. Ever try playing in Foxborough in December?

-This will encourage regular season match ups and ensure finishing as a top seed during the year is rewarded.. along with a nice cash payout for winning the regular season. Each playoff match up home team is rewarded +2 points at start of match up, giving the disadvantage to the lesser seed - really like this rule and should be fun if the 2 points actually decides a victory!

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Week 1 of the playoffs is upon us. In what seems like a short week coming off a holiday after thanksgiving, the games are quickly approaching starting with a Thursday night matchup in the Bears vs the Cowboys. Vegas has the over/under at 42.5, in which should be a low scoring affair. I believe the Cowboys have a ton more pressure to win this game, so Mitch and the boys should play relatively composed and not a lot of pressure to do too much. This is a winable game, is it winable for fantasy? We got Dak, Montgommery, Arob, Bears D, tarik, Zeke and few other potential starts in fantasy... how will they fair on Thursday Night?

White Claw Variety Packs(8) vs All Mahomies(1)

Pretty cool feature ESPN has showing previous matchups against your opponent you are facing in the playoffs. As you can see, Peter and Paul had a very close game in week 12, that led to Peter pulling off the late comeback on MNF to secure a victory:

Current projections for this matchup have Peter as a 12 point favorite against White Claw Variety Packs. 

 It will be interesting to see who Peter starts at QB, as Lamar has to play in Buffalo, and Mahomes has to play in Gillette. Fun fact, Tom Brady and Julian Edelman have never lost a home game in the regular season at Gillette against an AFC opponent. Think about that for a second. Will we see an early round exit from Peter? See where I am going with this? Paul has some decent matchups with Lev Bell playing against Miami, and Aaron Jones playing against the R Words. Will Justin Tucker hit a 50 yard field goal to upset the King? 

Tom Brady - Julian Edelman
When both play
vs AFC, at home
regular season

(41-0, 1.000)

ridiculous

details pic.twitter.com/WvrgIcov18

— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) October 23, 2019

Projection

White Claw Variety Packs 135.4 defeats All Mahomies 129.6 

White Claw takes the upset in the first round, ending a phenomenal regular season for All Mahomies on the backs of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry against the Bengals, and TB12 and Edelman at home in Gillette. 

The Flemchise(5) vs I Lockett Alot(4)

A high scoring affair in week 12 led to Flem pulling a way a big victory in this duo's only heads up matchip in the regular season. What will it take for Nordo to have a revenge game and move on to the next round?



For starters, he is going to have to decide who he wants to start at QB. Aaron Rodgers against the R words or Dak against the Bears? I think Rodgers is a no brainer answer here, but Dak has been putting up monster numbers and finished as the #2 QB in the regular season behind Lamar. Can you really sit the number 2 fantasy point getter in week 1 of the playoffs and cheer for Aaron Rodgers ? 











Current projections has Flem as a 11.5 point favorite that includes already being down 2 points as the away team. We are fortunate in this matchup regarding Thursday Night Football, as we have at least 3 players playing in Zeke, Arob, Montgomery, and a possible 4th in Dak. One of these managers is going to wake up Friday with a headache wondering how they gain points on Sunday. Gonna be a longgggg weekend fellas.













It is also going to be very interesting that Flem has Russ Wilson and Nordo has Tyler Lockett. That may be a determining factor? Hopefully the TD's go to Lockett to make this matchup really interesting.. I think the deciding factor, however, are going to be Golladay my favorite pick, Chubb and Kittle overcome a tough matchup in Michael Thomas Keenan Allen and Cook.





Projection


The Flemchise 135.2 defeats I Lockett Alot 131.4 

To Khalil A Mackingbird(6) vs Jahnsy Stackedhouse(3)

A low scoring affair in their sole regular season matchup in week 9. Teams that were trying to find their place in the standings, Jahns edged out a close one. The spread is basically a pick em right now in Vegas, giving the slight edge to Jahns with the home field advantage. I am curios to see how the line is going to move after the Wednesday night waiver wire and if Jahns' wideouts can get healthy before their games. Thielen and Julio are both questionable heading into this week, with AJ Green also out with he have to rely on the likes of Jamison Crowder and Tyrell Williams again? I sure hope not dude.










Although Crowder has a matchup against the Dolphins.... hmmmmm





Both managers will have decisions to make on the defensive side of the ball. Jahns has 49ers D against New Orleans, and Kratz has Bears D against Cowboys on TNF.... will they seek the waiver wire??


In looking at determining who has the upper edge in RB's this week, I am having difficult in deciding. 











All RB's have tough matchups, Fournette vs Chargers, Ingram vs Buffalo, Kamara vs San Fran, Gurley vs Seahawks. Going to give the edge to Jahns here based off the bigger names, but not by much. I expect this to be another low scoring affair in what may come down to who has the better flex play.. I know Kratz does not like me saying that but it is the truth, this matchup can go either way. 











With the question marks surrounding Jahnsy Stackedhouse' health, going to give the W to Khalil



To Khalil A Mackingbird 121.1 defeats Jahnsy Stackedhouse 116.5

Injured And Afraid(7) vs What the Ekeler?(2)

David has certainly come a long way since their Week 4 matchup in which Nick doubled his score. The hottest team in the league now gets to faceoff against a 2 seed who is a big underdog in Vegas. Current line has David at 11 point favorites already down 2 points to home field advantage. With how well Josh Allen, Saquon, Derrick Henry, Stefon Digs, Darren Waller and Tyreek Hill having been playing for him, it would not surprise me if David takes the 'upset' in this one. Not much of an upset when your team is Healthy And Confident, but I Digress (Mr. Jennings voice). In looking at the matchups, Allen has a tough one against the Ravens, and Tyreek Hill against New England. Other than that, his team looks to put up massive numbers this week playing against Philly, Oakland, Detroit and Atlanta.

















Nick on the other hand had the highest score in week 13 and is certainly trying to shut the haters up. Kirkc Cousins and Dalvin Cook are going to put up big numbers against Detroit this week after a tough loss against Seattle on national television. Ekeler is the 5th ranked RB and Robert Woods is coming off his best game of the season. I have a feeling this is going to be the highest scoring matchup in round one and am certainly excited to see the outcome which me may not know until Monday Night Football when Saquon takes on Philly against the Eagles with Eli Manning behind center. Will Nick's gamble of drafting Kareem Hunt pay dividends in Week 14? This is why you draft him, right? I sure hope sittin Deshaun Watson the fourth ranked QB in regular season does not come back to hunt you... see what I did there?
















Projection

Injured And Afraid 169.9 defeats What the Ekeler? 158.2

Consolation Bracket

Irwin is going to defeat me for the third time this season because I suck.